With the Super Bowl a few weeks away, I thought I’d review the current best bets for the final four and who I’ll pick to go the distance from a value perspective.
The spotlight will be on the stars this weekend as the media whips around in its usual frenzy. Jeremy Shockey, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and other big names will be in the spotlight, but oftentimes in these pressure games, stars can fail and lesser-known players can step up and win the game.
So who do you go to now if your futures pick has already bitten the dust?
Colts: odds range +100 to +120
People like to watch the Colts, who doesn’t, you can watch Peyton Manning, the best quarterback in the game, throw the ball. But I won’t bet them on price. Even money or something like that is too short for me and I can’t have them at that price.
York Jets: odds range from +700 to +800.
New York lives and breathes defense and has gotten them here. Who would have thought… The Colts most likely have too much ammunition for them, just look at the prices, but I’d rather have a small bet on the Jets than a big bet on the Colts. to get similar performance.
New Orleans Saints: odds range +200.
The Arizona Cardinals were simply outclassed in almost every department against the Saints, but they had played a game the week before, beating Green Bay, while New Orleans had a fortnight to rest and think about their opponents. I’d take the Saints at +200 before taking the Colts at +100, but I’d like at least +250 on the Saints before I bet and I don’t think I’ll find it. So I’m leaving the saints alone.
Minnesota Vikings: odds range +450 to +500
The road stats tell the story here, probably also explaining the prices available. The Vikings are a decent team at home, but if they were playing at home, you wouldn’t get the price!
It could be a cruel day for Minnesota, even if they make it to the Super Bowl, their Bowl record in terms of ‘appearances vs. wins’ is 4-0, and most of those losses came practically back-to-back during the 1970s. It reminds me of the Bills and their four straight Finals losses. Still, Brett Favre might still have something to say and take them all the way.
I will not accept short prices on equipment now. I’ll split my bets between Minnesota and the Jets and hope Minnesota can pull it off in a ‘one time’ road game and the Jets push the Jets out of their normal comfort zone.